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Top Trade Idea for January 6th, 2017 – AUD/CAD

The Australian trade balance for November shocked traders. Market consensus sought a deficit of around $500 million, an improvement from October’s $1.5 billion deficit. Instead the release showed a surplus of $1.24 billion AND October’s deficit was revised downward. Despite a muted market reaction, this is unambiguously good news for the Australian economy. It also […]

Top trade idea for December 22nd, 2016 – AUDUSD

The chart above is the daily AUDUSD and we’re looking at a possible zigzag pattern as explained on the top of it. A zigzag is formed by two impulsive waves, the a and c-waves, and a small correction for the b-wave. That small correction seems to have completed with the US election when the US […]

APAC: The USD Takes a Rest in Asia

After a quiet weekend on the news front, it looks like some USD profit taking has set in on USD longs as the holiday wind-down gets underway. I suspect Changi and Hong Kong Airports were busier over the weekend then Asia markets this morning, as the great Expat migration home for the holidays got underway. […]

King Dollar

The markets continue to trade on the backdrop of the FOMC meeting.While the US dollar remains king of the hill, the USD and US Treasuries sold off the  ” yield” tops after the US core CPI for November came in a whiff lower than expected. But this was more a case of data inspired profit taking as […]

Stormy Week ?

As we approach only the second  Fed rate hike in a decade,  Bond Traders took bond yields higher as not only do they view a Fed hike as  certain but continue to increase their bearish positions by sounding the inflation alarm bell as the UST 10 year rose to 2.48, the highest close since June […]

Lower GDP Takes Wind From AUD Sails.

A much lower than expected Australian 3Q GDP sends the AUD lower across the board. Australian Q3 GDP fell by a much lower -0.5%q/q today against a consensus forecast of -0.1%. Household spending has failed to recover from a lacklustre Q2, and across other sectors, house construction, CapEx and government spending were all weak. Although trade (read […]

Pound Suffers, EUR Contained, BoC Next

Five things the markets are talking about The markets focus now switches to monetary policy with today’s Bank of Canada (BoC) and tomorrows ECB rate announcement. With the market expected to hang on every word from the respective Governors, Poloz and Draghi, investors are sure to see asset price movement that will threaten the current […]

What’s Next ?

The Forex markets are Market remain somewhat brittle as volumes continue to run light and liquidity has started to erode earlier than normal entering the final leg of 2016. AS has been the case most of the former trading quarter Traders are at the mercy to quick moves driven by headline risk and continue to […]

No Eurozone Implosion

Euro While the pre-referendum polls were on call, the results were even more assertive than expected. However, after falling to a low of 1.0506 in Asia yesterday, the euro has roared back, trading back at Nov 15 levels and touching just shy of the critical 1.08 levels. US yields moved lower overnight, while equity prices […]

NFP Hodge Podge

While US employment data disappointed the market, on the whole, it was a Hodge podge of sorts.  The Unemployment Rate came in at a stellar  4.6% vs. 4.9%; NFP was in at consensus but the key Average Hourly Earnings( AHE)  shocked by missing badly on the downside -0.1% month on month vs. 0.2% expected . […]

OPEC Cacophony

Overnight saw another high volume, volatile session for forex, driven on the back of strong US economic data. However, it was impossible for currency traders to sidestep OPEC musings given a 4% drop in WTI, after the cacophony from headlines all pointing to the division between the Saudi agenda and the reality of Iran and […]

Top Trade Idea for 11/26/16 – EUR/AUD

  Mathematics is a pure and perfect world. Markets are not. While there are rules for defining technical factors and indicators, sometimes the art of technical analysis requires traders understand what the rules  mean  if they want to avoid crowded trades. This brings us to EUR/AUD. The downward move in EUR/AUD that began mid 2015 […]

Asia Quiet on a Tokyo Holiday

Trading across all asset classes has been subdued in Asia today with a holiday in Tokyo and ahead of Thanksgiving in the United States. The market continues to catch its breath after an exciting two weeks with only AUD/USD showing signs of life in Asia trading today. AUD was buoyed by more frenzied buying of […]

Holiday Induced Consolidation

With the USD consolidation of sorts and the UST 10’s stabilizing around 2.31-32% as the global bond market sell-off abates, G-10 traders’ attention was diverted to the oil patch as the usual raft of OPEC headlines will provide crosswinds. The latest of which is not sitting well with traders, as WTI turned lower after it […]

Reality Checks and the US Dollar

A quiet weekend of news has seen the USD finally see some profit taking and even some whispers of “a meaningful technical correction.” However, before we get too carried away, I thought it would be interesting to see just how much of a technical correction we would need now to put a hole under the […]

US Dollar Marches on in Asia

The US Dollar marches on supreme today again Asia FX and G10 currencies, as both the USD Index (DXY) and US 10 Year yields hit new highs. There seems to be a global competition on as to who can be the ugliest horse in the glue factory against the USD at the moment. The USD […]

Another Day another Dollar

The December Rate hike probability is set near 100%, and the UST 10’s are nearing 2 .38 %. The USD bulls have shown little fear by taking the greenback into the weekend trading at, or near, recent highs. Given the sheer USD buying volumes of late and with the DXY surging, traders are positioning for […]

There’s No Stopping Me Now for the USD

No Stopping Me Now  The focus overnight was on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, which reaffirmed what everyone has suspected – that barring some major hic-up in the US economic data releases December lift off is a green light. Her comments were perceived USD bullish, but it was the release […]

Top trade idea for November 17th, 2016 – EURAUD

The EURAUD cross shown above is forming a contracting triangle that is supposed to be part of a larger correction for the b-wave of a bigger degree. That being said, this contracting triangle should be a bullish one, but the e-wave is most likely not completed yet. The thing is that price should not break […]

The Beat Goes On

The 10-year US Treasury sell-off took a respite overnight despite the strong US retail sales data reinforcing December’s elevated rate hike probabilities. The market was quick to notice of comments from usually dovish leaning Fed, Tarullo, who mentioned that rate hikes were ‘more on the table’ than before, while speaking on finance and the economy, […]

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