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Top trade idea for December 13th, 2016 – USD/CHF

On theDailychartofUSDCHFwe are looking at a higherdegreecomplexcorrection, a threewave A-B-C rise ofwave IV, thatseems to be in actionsinceendof December of 2014. Thatsaid as wecansee, pairrecentlycompleted a triangle correction in theconnectingwave B andmade a sharpreversalhigher, abovethe sub-wave D swing. As suchwenowbelievepricemayunfold a five-wavedevelopmentwithinthefinalwave C of Y), beforemaking a higherdegreeimpulsivedroptowardsnewlows. Ideallypricewill make a run towardsthe 1.0700/1.0750. USDCHF, […]

Top trade idea for December 8th, 2016 – USDCHF

The USDCHF pair is one currency pair that it is extremely tricky to trade. There are multiple reasons for this, but the main ones are: the CHF is being viewed as a safe haven currency, and the SNB (Swiss National Bank) is one central bank that constantly intervenes to support the CHF. Because of the […]

Top trade idea for November 10th, 2016 – GBPCHF

The GBPCHF cross is looking bullish here as it may benefit from two factors moving forward: one will be the overall sell-off in the CHF as the USDCHF major seems poised to break the parity level, and the other one will be the GBP resilience. The US election brought both a panic and a relief […]

Asia Trading Post G-20. Central Banks Cross Their Fingers

With the USA and Canada on holiday today, trading in Asia has been subdued as we await Europe and continue to digest Fridays disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls number. The weekend’s G-20 produced a few nice dinners I am sure and more than its usual quota of vacuous statements on world trade, working together, stability and the […]

September: Some Important Dates for Capital Markets

Despite today’s NFP print potentially having a massive impact on a possible Fed hike in a few weeks, it will collectively be the “big four” central banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE), a G20 meet up, and an OPEC get together over the coming days that’s expected to be driving capital markets this month. Here […]

Brexit Negativity Takes A Time Out

Five things the markets are talking about Two themes have dominated proceedings in capital markets this week, first the flight to safety hitting global markets has been particularly acute in Europe, as polls suggesting growing levels of support for Brexit, ahead of the U.K’s June 23 referendum on its European Union membership. Second, central banks […]

Feds Street Cred Questioned

Five things the markets are talking about Yesterday was not a good day for the Fed’s credibility. U.S policy members did what was expected of them, and not hike rates, but their interpretation of “clarity” going forward is considered disappointing. In her press conference, Ms. Yellen highlighted that ‘Brexit’ was a factor in the Fed’s […]

Top trade idea for June 8th, 2016 – GBP/CHF

The pound was struggling on Wednesday morning to add to the gains made Tuesday when fresh polls showed support for remain was narrowly ahead of the exit camp, contradicting surveys released on Monday and at the weekend which had suggested the campaign for Brexit was ahead. Sterling did however enjoy a small bounce on the […]

Top trade idea for May 26th, 2016 – USDCHF

I am bullish USDCHF here as no matter how you look at this structure on the daily chart there is only one conclusion that can be drawn: it is a corrective pattern. Not only that it is a corrective pattern, but it should be followed by an impulsive wave so the move that started from […]

Top trade idea for May 16th, 2016 – USD/CHF

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the USD/CHF has crept up close to a strong resistance. A break at 0.98 is expected and then a strengthening of the USD against the franc to 0.9940. Look to buy dollar only after a break in the level and a consolidation above 0.98 that doesn’t last long. The last […]

Top trade idea for April 19th, 2016 – USD/CHF

USDCHF has turned sharply higher last week, clearly with impulsive price action away from 100% Fibonacci level of wave A) compared to wave C). We have seen a very strong turn back above black wave 4 swing that puts a low in place so we need to be aware of even more upside in days […]

Top trade idea for April 14th, 2016 – USDCHF

Despite the move higher I am looking for another pullback on the USDCHF pair and if you want the fact that it is hesitating at this upper side of a channel makes the trade quite appealing. It is a risky trade though as possibilities for this triangle at the end of a complex correction are […]

Top trade idea for April 5th, 2016 – USD/CHF and USD/JPY

USDCHF USDCHF did not go far for the last 48 hours so it appears that bears are still here and that current sideways price action is just another pause within down trend. That said, we think that USDCHF is going to see a new low soon, out from a triangle that already shows signs of […]

FX5: Risk Aversion Dominates Euro Session

Five-things the markets are talking about The equity market’s big swings have greatly subsided, leaving many wondering – what is next? Major indexes drifted higher yesterday in a quiet trading session, as investors seemed to shy away from making any ‘big’ bets at the start of this holiday-shortened trading week. With earning’s season virtually complete […]

FX5: Fed Loses Some Street Cred, Dollar Crashes

Five things the markets are talking about This month was always going to be about the “battle of the Central Banks.” Two-weeks in and they have not disappointed. Some are aggressive, some passive, but they are all in agreement on one thing, they consistently express a cautious tone on the global economy. Yesterday’s FOMC announcement […]

Top trade idea for March 10th, 2016 – USDCHF

This USDCHF pair is not going anywhere to the downside until it completes a contracting triangle at the end of a contracting triangle, namely wave e. This wave is extremely vicious as it implies multiple crossings up and down the parity level until this one is looking its importance. Now that the b-d trend line […]

Top trade idea for January 27th, 2016 – USD/CHF

Two weeks ago, we highlighted a constructive candlestick pattern off bullish trend line support on USD/CHF and concluded that the pair could well bounce toward near-term Fibonacci resistance levels at 1.0120 (61.8%) and 1.0210 (78.6%). It took its time getting there, but USD/CHF finally edged up to test the 1.0210 level yesterday, leaving the pair […]

SNB Suffers Record 23 Billion-Franc Loss

The Swiss National Bank estimates that it incurred a record loss of 23 billion francs ($23 billion) last year after it abandoned its currency cap. The appreciation of the franc that followed the Jan. 15 decision resulted in a loss of 20 billion francs on its foreign-currency positions, the central bank said in a statement […]

Top trade idea for December 24th, 2015 – USDCHF

This Christmas sees the US dollar on a move lower even though if you are comparing the actual distance travelled on various US dollar pairs after the Fed rate hike, it is not that much of a correction. Above is the usdchf pair, one pair that is difficult to be traded due to the instability […]

Top trade idea for November 3rd , 2015 – USD/CHF

USDCHF has been moving sideways since end of March. We see five price swings between two trendlines that reminds us on a triangle formation. That’s an A-B-C-D-E pattern that occurs in the direction of a trend, so it’s a continuation formation that suggests more upside for USDCHF. In fact this bullish trend continuation is already […]

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