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EUR/USD – Euro Edges Higher, US Jobless Claims Next

It continues to be a quiet trading week as we wrap up 2016. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0450. The markets are likely to remain listless for the remainder of the week, with the markets characterized by thin trading volumes. It’s also a quiet day on the release front. There are no major European releases on […]

EUR/USD – Euro Quiet in Thin Trading

The euro remains subdued in the Wednesday session, as EUR/USD trades at 1.0440. The markets are likely to remain listless for the remainder of the week, as many investors have closed books prior to the end of the year, resulting in thin liquidity in the market. There are no European releases on the schedule, and […]

EUR/USD – Euro Unchanged Ahead of US Consumer Confidence

The euro is almost unchanged in the Tuesday session, as EUR/USD trades at 1.0450. There are no European releases until Thursday. In the US, today’s highlight is CB Consumer Confidence, with the indicator expected to climb to 108.9 points. On Wednesday, the US releases Pending Home Sales, with the markets anticipating a strong gain of […]

Euro Yawns as German Consumer Climate Meets Expectations

The euro remains steady on Friday, the final session before the Christmas holidays. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0450. On the release front, GfK German Consumer Climate edged up to 9.9 points, above the forecast of 9.8 points. In the US, the week wraps up with UoM Consumer Sentiment, with the markets expecting a strong improvement […]

Holiday Mode Keeps Participation Light

Five things the markets are talking about Thin trade ahead of the Christmas holiday and shortened trading sessions in several markets sees trading volumes -40% lower than the 30-day average. Stocks, currencies and sovereign bonds continue to move in narrow ranges as investors and dealers remain reluctant to open any new positions ahead of the […]

CANADA: Consumer Price Index, November 2016

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.2% on a year-over-year basis in November, following a 1.5% gain in October. 12-month change in the major components Prices were up in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to November, with the shelter and transportation indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year rise in […]

EUR/SEK Breaks Key Support Post Riksbank

SEK rallies against EUR post-Riksbank rate decision and QE extension, attacking key support at 9.6755. It’s not really supposed to play out this way. The Swedish Central Bank has just announced it is holding rates at -0.5% and is continuing QE yet the SEK rallies strongly against the EUR? The headlines make for pretty dovish reading. […]

Stocks, Bonds or FX: Which is Irrational?

Five things the markets are talking about Stocks, the dollar and U.S yields are trading at lofty heights on the “potentials” of Trump’s fiscal stimulus packages – details not yet disclosed. Nevertheless, one of these asset classes, more than the others, does seem to be out of sync with reality. Last week, the Fed’s Yellen […]

Dollar Boosted by Yellen; Risk Aversion

Five things the markets are talking about Volatility across regional indices and major currency pairs remains seasonably compressed despite the geopolitical nerves in Europe. Sovereign debt saw a relatively strong bid over the last session on heightened geopolitical risk – a Russian ambassador was shot and killed by an off-duty policeman in Turkey in defiance […]

Dollar Bruised, but not Battered Just Yet

Five-things the markets are talking about The dollar and sovereign yields fell overnight while Asian shares printed a new monthly low as the market cashed in some of their recent bets on Trumponomics and the ‘reflation’ trade. This will be a light week on many fronts – liquidity and fundamentally. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) […]

Week Ahead Bank of Japan in the Spotlight

BOJ weighing next action after Fed rate hike The USD is higher across the board after the Fed finally announced its much awaited rate hike. The market had already priced in the 25 basis points rate hike to the Fed funds rate, but the hawkish tone of the FOMC statement, dot plot and Fed Chair […]

APAC: The USD Takes a Rest in Asia

After a quiet weekend on the news front, it looks like some USD profit taking has set in on USD longs as the holiday wind-down gets underway. I suspect Changi and Hong Kong Airports were busier over the weekend then Asia markets this morning, as the great Expat migration home for the holidays got underway. […]

Halfway Point for December Holiday Volatility

Five things the markets are talking about Investors are taking a breather from assimilating the probability of three-Fed rate hikes for 2017. The ‘mighty’ dollar, ruling on rate differentials, has fallen back from its “dozen baker” highs against a plethora of currencies. Given the likely higher than expected rate of monetary contraction next year, the […]

King Dollar

The markets continue to trade on the backdrop of the FOMC meeting.While the US dollar remains king of the hill, the USD and US Treasuries sold off the  ” yield” tops after the US core CPI for November came in a whiff lower than expected. But this was more a case of data inspired profit taking as […]

Dot-Plot Blindness has Dollar Bears Bailing

Five things the markets are talking about The Fed did not surprise, they did what was expected of them on the headline, but it’s their foresight that has capital markets wildly gyrating. The big takeaway from yesterday’s FOMC meeting is the increase in the pace of tightening that’s been signalled for next year. Policy members […]

Fed Lift Off Starts Today – What Else Should We Expect?

Five things the markets are talking about Today’s Fed meeting is of critical importance, not only for what it says about any change in interest rates, but also for what it signals about the path ahead. U.S policy makers are expected to hike +25bps for the second time in a decade at 02:00pm EST, motivated […]

Markets Look For Conviction From Fed

Five things the markets are talking about The Fed’s highly anticipated two-day meeting begins later today when U.S policy will decide whether to raise interest rates for the first time in 12-months. The latest results from the CME’s FedWatch tool indicate the likelihood of a rate increase is currently +95.4%, up from yesterday’s +94.9% odds […]

Spike in Crude Push U.S Yields Through Key Levels

Five things the markets are talking about On the calendar front this is a busy week in capital markets. The Fed is expected to increase fed funds for the first time in 12-months. On Wednesday, the FOMC will issue both its policy statement and quarterly forecasts while Janet Yellen will take questions that will bridge […]

APAC Corner: ECB Trims, but Euro looks Flabby

Post-ECB, the Euro bounces along the bottom with trading in Asia muted today as we run into the weekend. EUR/USD The ECB may have trimmed and not tapered QE overnight, but the EUR/USD itself is still looking very flabby today trading not too far from its overnight lows in a very very quiet Asia session. […]

Euro Bears Looking to Sell on Rallies

Five things the markets are talking about An expansive monetary policy buys time for reforms, but too much stimulus creates an unstable financial market. The ECB’s decision to reduce their monthly bond-buying rate as of April next year sends the market the correct message, especially after the disappointing result of last weekend’s Italian referendum. By […]

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