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Top trade idea for December 29th, 2016 – EURGBP

Ahead of the year’s end, the US dollar is one currency that will be influenced by new positioning in 2017. Therefore, looking at crosses for a trade is the right thing to do. The above chart is the EURGBP cross on the daily time frame, and this one is giving us a great opportunity for […]

GBP/USD – British Pound Steady in Light Holiday Trade

GBP/USD has edged lower in the Tuesday session, as the pair trades at 1.2240. On the release front, there are no British events as British markets are closed for a holiday. The UK wrapped up last week with on a positive note, as GDP was revised upwards to 0.7%, edging above the forecast of 0.6%. […]

Holiday Mode Keeps Participation Light

Five things the markets are talking about Thin trade ahead of the Christmas holiday and shortened trading sessions in several markets sees trading volumes -40% lower than the 30-day average. Stocks, currencies and sovereign bonds continue to move in narrow ranges as investors and dealers remain reluctant to open any new positions ahead of the […]

GBP/USD – Pound Remains Subdued Ahead of US and British GDP Reports

GBP/USD has shown little movement since Tuesday, as the pair trades at 1.2340. On the release front, the highlight of the day is Final GDP. We’ll also get a look at Core Durable Goods Orders and unemployment claims. There are no UK releases on Thursday. On Friday, the US publishes New Home Sales and UoM Consumer […]

Dollar Bruised, but not Battered Just Yet

Five-things the markets are talking about The dollar and sovereign yields fell overnight while Asian shares printed a new monthly low as the market cashed in some of their recent bets on Trumponomics and the ‘reflation’ trade. This will be a light week on many fronts – liquidity and fundamentally. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) […]

Top trade idea for December 16th, 2016 – GBP/JPY

There have been some magnificent trend in the Yen pairs in recent weeks but this one has reached an interesting stage. GBP/JPY is at the 61.8% retracement level of the last major decline and that’s a level that can often halt a rally. It’s showing signs of possible divergence against the RSI.  If the daily […]

Dot-Plot Blindness has Dollar Bears Bailing

Five things the markets are talking about The Fed did not surprise, they did what was expected of them on the headline, but it’s their foresight that has capital markets wildly gyrating. The big takeaway from yesterday’s FOMC meeting is the increase in the pace of tightening that’s been signalled for next year. Policy members […]

Markets Look For Conviction From Fed

Five things the markets are talking about The Fed’s highly anticipated two-day meeting begins later today when U.S policy will decide whether to raise interest rates for the first time in 12-months. The latest results from the CME’s FedWatch tool indicate the likelihood of a rate increase is currently +95.4%, up from yesterday’s +94.9% odds […]

Euro Bears Looking to Sell on Rallies

Five things the markets are talking about An expansive monetary policy buys time for reforms, but too much stimulus creates an unstable financial market. The ECB’s decision to reduce their monthly bond-buying rate as of April next year sends the market the correct message, especially after the disappointing result of last weekend’s Italian referendum. By […]

Lower GDP Takes Wind From AUD Sails.

A much lower than expected Australian 3Q GDP sends the AUD lower across the board. Australian Q3 GDP fell by a much lower -0.5%q/q today against a consensus forecast of -0.1%. Household spending has failed to recover from a lacklustre Q2, and across other sectors, house construction, CapEx and government spending were all weak. Although trade (read […]

Pound Suffers, EUR Contained, BoC Next

Five things the markets are talking about The markets focus now switches to monetary policy with today’s Bank of Canada (BoC) and tomorrows ECB rate announcement. With the market expected to hang on every word from the respective Governors, Poloz and Draghi, investors are sure to see asset price movement that will threaten the current […]

Markets Skip Political Tension, Focus on ECB and QE

Five things the markets are talking about It’s been a quiet overnight session as the market contemplates the weekend’s Italian Referendum and Austrian elections results. Italy’s referendum was strongly defeated, and investor response was ho-hum – the expected volatility was settled within three-minutes, for Trump it took three-hours, for Brexit three-days. Political risk from Italy […]

Trump Effect Wont be Beat by NFP

Five things the markets are talking about It’s non-farm payroll (NFP) day and the event risk is not for a stronger number, that’s been covered ad nauseam, but for such a disappointing headline print that will unravel some of the baked in Fed rate hike set for Dec 14. The signs of that happening have […]

U.S Dollar Stumbles, But Does Not Fall

Five things the markets are talking about It seems that investors are happy to take a breather in this holiday-shortened week as the dollar pares this week’s surge supported by U.S rate differentials. The “reflationary trade” continues to suck money back in to U.S equity markets, while putting further pressure on emerging market FX rates, […]

Asia Quiet on a Tokyo Holiday

Trading across all asset classes has been subdued in Asia today with a holiday in Tokyo and ahead of Thanksgiving in the United States. The market continues to catch its breath after an exciting two weeks with only AUD/USD showing signs of life in Asia trading today. AUD was buoyed by more frenzied buying of […]

Crude Bulls Looking For $55 A Barrel

Five things the markets are talking about Hopes that the Trump administration would usher in a pro-business, pro-growth environment continue to drive stocks and yield higher and favour the dollar on rate differentials. Yesterday, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite closed out to complete a trifecta of records as equities continued […]

Trump Jump To High?

Five things the markets are talking about Markets have been very positive on the new U.S President elect and have been quick to embrace the “reflation” trade over the past fortnight. Is it too much perhaps? If so, this would suggest that some of the aggressive market moves that we have witnessed across the various […]

Fed Hike Odds Near 100%

Five things the markets are talking about Dealers and investors are now seeing a near-certainty of a Fed rate hike next month, with odds of an increase rising to +94% from +86% after Tuesday’s retail-sales report. Yesterday, U.S retail sales advanced a seasonally adjusted +0.8% last month while September’s gain was boosted to +1%, marking […]

Market Moves Overdone?

Five things the market is talking about The speed and ferociousness of some of the price moves across the various asset classes since Donald Trump was elected U.S President have been stunning. The intensity of the sovereign bond rout has cost investors more than a +$1.5trillion dollars – U.S 10-year notes have backed up +41bps […]

Sterling Pounds Brexit Bears

Five things the markets are talking about Victory for new President Trump has markets focusing on the prospect of substantial public spending lifting U.S inflation and prompting a rise in domestic interest rates. The odds of two Fed rate hikes by end of next year have risen to almost +90%, and it’s this potential rate […]

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