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Top trade idea for December 9th, 2016 – NZD/USD

Clean and Simple Occasionally, after trawling through hundreds of charts, you find a trade that cleanly fits all of your trading plan’s rules. Those focussed on Bollinger Bands as a technical indicator may have that thrilling experience in NZD/USD. Saving a thousand words: The pair traded out through the top Bollinger Band. Then it reverted […]

Lower GDP Takes Wind From AUD Sails.

A much lower than expected Australian 3Q GDP sends the AUD lower across the board. Australian Q3 GDP fell by a much lower -0.5%q/q today against a consensus forecast of -0.1%. Household spending has failed to recover from a lacklustre Q2, and across other sectors, house construction, CapEx and government spending were all weak. Although trade (read […]

US Dollar Marches on in Asia

The US Dollar marches on supreme today again Asia FX and G10 currencies, as both the USD Index (DXY) and US 10 Year yields hit new highs. There seems to be a global competition on as to who can be the ugliest horse in the glue factory against the USD at the moment. The USD […]

Just Can’t Get Enough ,USD’s

The primary sentiment driver for USD is the bond markets as selling continues across Global Capital Markets. The yield on 10-year Treasuries has increased above to 2.20% as pricing for a December FOMC rate hike is now pegged all in at 96%, after Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan sounded extremely confident the Fed would move […]

EM Trump Slump or Trump Dump

A monumental week in currency markets as   US Bond yields soared weighing on Emerging Markets sentiment. After an effervescent week in equity markets, they retraced on Friday after the energy sector swooned burdened by the prospect that OPEC will not cap supply. Also, precious metals have plummeted as the safe – haven appeal diminishes amid […]

Fed Hike Back On With Trump Win

Five things the markets are talking about There are many still trying to come to terms with Trump’s shock U.S Presidential win on Tuesday, while others seem willing to sidestep political and economic debate, believing that with unilateral control, Trump stands a good chance of enacting key elements of his economic agenda. It’s these investors […]

APAC Corner: Normal Server Is Resumed!

In a holiday-thinned market, more political ructions saw “risk-off” trading as Ms. Clintons server saga refuses to go away. What should have been a quiet day in Asia with Japan on holiday, turned out to be anything but. As I said yesterday, “there’s never just one cockroach,” and so it was with Fox News breaking the […]

Election Fevered Frenzy

The market remains obsessively focused on US election poll gazing. The risk remains hobbled, but signs of trader fatigue are setting in. The Fed committee left the Fed funds rates on hold but noted the case for a rate increase continues to strengthen, so the big question now is what could derail a December Rate […]

Shifting Tides

A case of pre FOMC and US election jitters gripped cross asset markets overnight dampening market enthusiasm, which ensnared trading desk with a severe case of the fidgets. November has gotten off to a frenzied start with shifting US election tracking polls now show Clinton and Trump in a neck and neck race for the […]

Top trade idea for October 27th, 2016 – NZDUSD

The chart above is the NZDUSD pair and it is showing a contracting triangle that seems to form at the end of a complex correction. Having said that, it means that it will virtually have no measured move as no limits on the future price action can be imposed. In plain English, it’s a tricky […]

Top trade idea for October 20st, 2016 – AUDNZD

Above there is the AUDNZD cross that is shaping up a bearish setup that most likely started with the last move above 1.07. The idea behind this trade is that the current move should be one destined for parity, so it should be no wonder the take profit is close to that area. Trading with […]

Lull Before the Storm

It’s been an incredibly quiet start to the week as most currencies remain rangebound, but don’t let this sense of calm fool you, markets may be poised to explode. There is a  multitude of macro themes dominating the current Forex landscape, a Fed hike, ECB, and  BoJ tapering fears, and of course the US Elections. There […]

Top trade idea for October 05th, 2016 – NZD/CAD

Crude oil’s fundamental outlook continues to improve: as well as the planned OPEC oil output cut, we have seen surprise inventory destocking in the US for five straight weeks now. In addition to the prospects of reduced supply, the outlook for oil demand appears to be healthy too, judging by this week’s key US economic […]

Sterling in the Spotlight as Asia Starts the Week

Trading in Asia is subdued today with China on holiday all week. The focus has been in GBP this morning with Theresa May announces that Britain will trigger Article 50 around March 2017 with a full exit of the EU by 2019. This has seen the GBP/USD under pressure this morning.GBP bears may be once […]

Top trade idea for September 28th, 2016 – NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar’s recent advance has come to a halt recently after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggested that interest rates may need to be cut further from their current record low of 2.0%. The NZD’s retreat has been particularly noticeable against the Australian dollar as the AUD/NZD pair has surged back above […]

The Great Debate

As we enter the new week, Central Bank Policy qualm has significantly reduced for now. However, the US election risk hovers on the horizon for markets with the first general election debate of the 2016 presidential campaign set for tonight.  Given the highly polarizing and politically divisive cast of characters, could the drama be any […]

NZD: Kiwi’s Wings Get Clipped

The New Zealand Dollar has had a difficult end to the week. Being heavily sold against most of its major counterparts. However, the longer term charts and underlying macro situation mean the picture is not as clear-cut as it seems. New Zealand has been somewhat of a darling recently. A purring economy, an excellent rugby […]

Top trade idea for September 23rd, 2016 – NZD/USD

Here are key sentences from two central bank statements this week Reserve Bank of New Zealand:  “Our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range”. US Federal Open Market Committee:  “The Committee judges that the case for an […]

Top trade idea for September 20th, 2016 – NZD/USD

On the daily chart of NZD USD we are tracking a higher degree corrective wave B taking place, with price now trading in final stages of an ending diagonal that seems to be placed in blue wave C. That said we see price trading right above the lower channel line, from where we believe a […]

Asia treads water ahead of “Big Wednesday”

A mostly quiet session in Asia today. We have a Japanese holiday, “Respect for the Aged Day,” although I’ve not noticed anyone being any nicer to me here in Singapore this morning. The street seems to have gone into hibernation mode ahead of the BoJ and FOMC “Big Wednesday.” The USD continues to be generally […]

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